Estimated malaria cases across Nigeria annually

Satellite early warning for climate risk — scoped to the sectors you monitor, delivered before the crisis.
Explainable risk scoring for the African agencies that act on it — public health, agriculture, emergency response, water.
The intelligence gap
Rainfall, standing water, temperature, and vegetation data exist today. But raw environmental readings do not tell a malaria officer whether to intervene now, an emergency team which LGA is closest to flooding first, or an agriculture officer which districts a failing season will hit.
A raw signal says
“Rainfall reached 90mm this week.”
KlimateIQ explains
“Risk is rising, here is why, and this is the next action.”
Estimated malaria cases across Nigeria annually
Estimated damage and losses from Nigeria's 2022 floods
Typical lag before rising risk reaches officers as confirmed data
Burden, loss and reporting-lag figures are indicative estimates from public sources, intended for pilot validation.
From signal to decision
Each layer is independently scalable, traceable, and focused on turning environmental change into a clear public-health action.
Automated pipelines pull rainfall, temperature, standing water, vegetation, soil moisture, humidity, wind, air quality and harmattan dust, river discharge, active-fire hotspots, elevation and population exposure — for the sectors and regions teams monitor.
Signals become fourteen named, explainable risk indices — malaria, waterborne disease, flooding, heat, drought, wildfire, air quality and more — grouped into the sectors teams follow. The same engine also scores a future period in a separate lane: a 3-to-14-day forecast, not just this week.
When agency-defined thresholds are crossed — a fixed value, an unusual change, or a likelihood from the ensemble forecast — officers receive the trend, leading risk drivers, recommended action, and ranked regional priority.
Explainable by design
KlimateIQ does not hide different problems inside one opaque number. Every index is purpose-built, every score traces back to its drivers, and every output is designed to support a real operational decision.
Score breakdown
Rainfall
NASA POWER
Standing water
JRC Surface Water
Elevation
SRTM 30m
Forecasting, honestly labelled
KlimateIQ still scores the completed week. It now also looks ahead — with the forecast kept in its own lane, clearly marked, never blended into what has actually been measured.
Days ahead
The Riverine Flood Forecast reads GloFAS river discharge against each LGA's own flood levels for a 3-to-14-day heads-up. Flood, Heat, Malaria and Drought are forward-scored too — the same formula, run on a forecast period, in a lane that never mixes with observed data.
How likely
A 50-member ensemble runs the forecast fifty times from slightly different starting conditions. The spread becomes a likelihood: “about a 62% chance of crossing into high risk within two weeks.” An alert rule can fire on the odds, not only on a fixed value.
Which river
A confluence LGA sits on more than one river. Lokoja is scored per named reach — the Niger and the Benue read separately, each against its own return levels — so the warning says which river, and which bank to pre-position on.
A forecast is a forecast, not a reading. Every forward score and alert is labelled as one, with the lead time shown.
AI, honestly scoped
KlimateIQ combines deterministic, traceable risk scoring with four focused intelligence capabilities. AI progressively activates as historical case data is validated, while every live output remains tied to evidence.
Learns the real relationship between environmental signals and historical malaria case data—not a fixed human formula.
Turns raw scores into a plain-English brief, explaining when risk rose because of signals such as sustained rainfall and standing water.
Learns each region's own baseline and flags what is unusual for that specific place—not just a fixed threshold.
Uses standing-water intelligence from satellite observations, with Sentinel-2 NDWI via Google Earth Engine defined as the independently verifiable model path.
AI guardrails
From evidence to action
KlimateIQ packages each risk score with the context an officer needs to act—and the evidence a coordinator needs to defend that action.
Example operational brief
Trend
↑ Rising
Leading drivers
Sustained rainfall + standing water
Recommended action
Pre-position rapid diagnostic tests and treatment supplies in the highest-priority regions.
Purpose-built intelligence
Pick the sectors you monitor and your workspace scopes to them. As new risk indices ship, they land in the sectors you already follow — no reconfiguration.
Climate-linked disease risk — malaria, waterborne disease, respiratory illness, heat-health — weeks before case data would show it.
Malaria · Waterborne Disease · Respiratory · Heat Stress
Rainfall deficit, soil-water stress and vegetation stress ahead of a bad season, with the rain-fed crops most exposed named for the zone and month.
Drought · Agriculture Stress · Irrigation Need · Rangeland Stress
Which areas are closest to flooding, dangerous heat, wildfire or dust storms — plus a 3-to-14-day river-flood forecast.
Flood Risk · Riverine Flood Forecast · Heat Stress · Wildfire · Dust Storm
Flood risk, post-flood waterborne-disease risk and dry-season water availability for WASH and water-supply planning.
Flood Risk · Waterborne Disease · Dry-Season Water Stress · Riverine Flood Forecast
Fine and coarse particulate matter and harmattan dust, refreshed daily.
Respiratory · Dust Storm
A weighted view across every active environmental signal — one regional snapshot to scan before drilling into a specific risk.
Composite Climate-Health Pressure
Fourteen indices live today. On the roadmap, attaching to the sectors you already follow: a meningitis-belt risk index and a multi-decade climate outlook.
Personalized early warning
Tell KlimateIQ what you monitor and it scopes your whole workspace to it — the dashboard, the risk indices, the alerts. A one-minute setup on first sign-in, changeable any time.
Public health, agriculture, emergency response, water & sanitation, air quality. Your dashboard and alerts scope to the risks in those sectors — and new indices added to them show up automatically.
Watch every active region, just your state, or the specific LGAs you're responsible for. A newly watched region begins its first environmental data pull immediately.
Watch a named index or a raw signal against a fixed value, catch an unusual change versus that region's own baseline, or fire when the ensemble forecast makes a crossing more likely than not.
Get notified in-app, by email, or by SMS. Acknowledge the alert, follow its recommended action, and resolve it when handled.
Monitoring configuration
Threshold breached
Value 76 crossed your threshold of 70.
Built for the people who decide
Sectors, indices, thresholds, saved views, and reports adapt to what each team is responsible for.
Every sector and region for planning, prioritization, and resource allocation.
Malaria, waterborne-disease, respiratory and heat-health risk for their programme area, with threshold and probability alerts.
Drought, soil-water-stress, irrigation-need and rangeland-stress signals to target support before yields collapse.
A 3-to-14-day river-flood forecast — named to the river — for positioning teams and supplies before displacement.
Flood, post-flood waterborne-disease and dry-season water-stress signals to focus treatment where risk is rising.
Documented API access to regional scores for trusted third-party systems.
Grounded in trusted data
All 774 Nigerian LGAs are available today, with usage-driven ingestion focused on the places agencies actively watch. Observed readings, days-ahead forecasts and ensemble runs all sit on the same open-licensed, lat/long-driven spine — built to extend country by country across Africa.